Most of this month’s respondents really, really didn’t like the questions on Liberal Party values… but the findings confirmed the indications from last month that there has been a significant erosion of the Liberal Party base.

Let’s start with the numbers, then we’ll go to the despair and frustration.

First Preferences

there was an expected and predicted correction in first preferences from last month, remembering that our poll window in January was at the peak of the Djokovic nonsense. This month’s polling window was affected by the religious freedoms debate, but it wasn’t as intense. A reminder, vote intention figures are always volatile at this point in the election cycle and things usually swing back in the favour of incumbents as election day nears. We also made two changes to the pick list (that is the options you just need to click rather than typing in your ‘other’ party) to add Palmer’s UAP and Fusion, which is the merger of the Pirate Party, Science Party, and a couple of other similarly minded smaller parties, so they could get to the new required minimum membership level of 1500, up from 500.

The vote for Independents is again up another 0.6%, although the big surges of the last couple of polls seems to have slowed. The Greens took a big slide, which is not unusual as an election nears, but the severity of it – down from 9.1% to 6.8% – seems to be driven by panicked strategic voting thoughts: “We have to vote Labor to get a change of government”. Similar sentiments have been noted by previously or normally independent voters, especially in Clark (Wilkie’s seat) which is the only Independent v Labor seat.

Adding UAP to the pick list effectively split the PHON vote in half, showing yet again that this is an anti-establishment vote rather than a specific party vote. The combined PHON/UAP vote is down a full 1.8 points from last month to 4.5%. However the other minor is up a bit, part of which is Fusion (1.3%) being added to the picklist. Also, it’s not clear if there is some confusion about the Liberal Democrats and Australian Democrats, but there were a bizarre number of Australian Democrat voters this month (about 100 of them were from the same IP address and within a couple of hours… nice effort, but all of those responses were ruled invalid and deleted). The most bizarre bit was that – of the small number of Australian Democrat votes that survived our quality control processes – many were commenting similar anti-establishment remarks to PHON/UAP/Liberal Democrat voters, including opposing vaccine mandates.

WTF.

There were pro-refugee, pro federal ICAC, anti religious discrimination bill type comments you’d expect from Democrats, it wasn’t universal. And there are always a couple bouncing around in the poll, there’s nothing unusual about there being Democrat votes recorded. But If the Australian Democrats went after the fringe right wing anti-COVID mandate protesters in order to get their 1500 members, which is what some of the comments seem to indicate, that would be very interesting. For those unaware, I used to run the Democrats, and know they have done some amazingly dodgy things to stay registered in the past (especially in NSW), but seriously?

Deep breath, let it all go… and let’s continue.

Effective Vote

If you’re new, please read last month’s post with the explainers of Effective Vote and IvC, the two alternatives we are trialling to find something more meaningful than 2PP.

The effective vote has a similar correct to first preferences, with Labor down 0.6% (down 1 to 80 seats) and the Coalition up 2% (up 3 to 59 seats). The bigger story of this month is the Other taking a dip from 9% to 7.7%, dropping from 14 to 12 seats (really 11 and one on a knife edge). Most of that was the contraction in support for Greens, and that swing against Wilkie noted in Clark.

EFFECTIVE VOTE	Percentage	Seats
ALP	53.3% (-0.6%)	80 (-1)
Coalition	39.1% (+2%)	59 (+3)
Others	7.7% (-1.3%)	12 (-2)

Incumbent v Challenger

Our two 2PP alternatives have returned to the frustrating dynamic of last year where they point in opposite directions. While the effective vote points at a comfortable Labor win, the IvC says no deal. In 2019 the IvC was right, consistently pointing at no change in Government.

Note this is still within the MOE of dead even, so don’t get excited – this may be a Coalition retain, it may be a hung parliament, but this particular metric is not fond of Labor victory. the IvC continues to affirm other indicators and qualitative analysis that the increase in Labor vote is mostly happening in Labor held seats – the anti-Liberal voter is currently homeless, often equally unimpressed with Labor, and looking for something else.

Momentum Tracker

No Momentum Tracker this month! We made a really substantial change to the validation  questions which we will explain next month when it returns.

General Direction

We asked some classic, been around in political polling forever, type questions this month. These are essentially used as yardsticks about whether people are unhappy and want change. However, they come with a cautionary note that you need to know how to read them. The Right direction/wrong track question has been a consistent indicator since the 70s, but it always has a majority say we’re on the wrong track. It’s when that wrong track figure gets above 70% that you pay attention. Which it is. All these numbers are pretty bad… things are not great for most people.

The last number on pride warrants a note of caution. The question was: “Do you feel proud to be an Australian at the moment?”. That qualifier – ‘at the moment’ – distinguishes it from the usual questions about pride in one’s nation asked in, say, the Scanlon surveys. While it was early up the deck and randomised in its placement, there is also likely a bit of question order effects going on there (that is, when people just answered a question saying they’re worse off, and another question saying Australia was headed in the wrong direction, they are more likely to continue to answer in the negative for the next question). I’ve never seen a ‘no’ figure above 50% for Australians having pride in their country. Many people commented that they are always proud to be Australian, but not proud of our current government.

Liberal Party Values

The more meaty and qualitative part of this months survey was on Liberal Party values. This was prompted by some indications last month that there had been significant erosion of the party base. And we didn’t need to look hard to find a lot of evidence supporting that proposition in the response to this month’s questions. Especially among men.

Liberal party abandonment

I was a long term (10+ year) active and financial member of the Liberal Party – I no longer support them. 35-44 year old male, NSW

I voted for the Liberals for over 20 years, but once they became a hate filled faux Christian party I could not support them. 45-54 year old male, Queensland

I used to vote Liberal however they have drifted too far right and are being captured by fundamentalist Christians. 55-64 male, NSW

I voted Liberal for over 30 years. I will NOT be voting Liberal again. Malcom Fraser is turning in his grave. 55-64 year old male, Victoria

Have previously voted for Liberal but am appalled by the current Liberal Government.  It now stands against all the things that are important to me.  It is an embarrassment to its founders. 55-64 year old male, NSW

Less than 150 respondents from the entire 2000 odd that answered these questions annunciated any kind of answer to ‘what do you think the Liberal Party stands for’ that in any way matched with what is on the party’s own ‘Beliefs’ page. Almost all who did were financial members or former members. Most of the responses were either spewing partisan hate, which we just set aside… or confusion and despair. All of the below responses are from Liberal Party voters.

Liberal party values (Liberal voters)

Federally and in NSW – I really don’t know anymore. Certainly not a conservative party in touch with the day to day realties of living in 2022. 65-74 year old male, NSW

I don’t even think the Liberal Party itself knows what it stands for at the moment.  Generally though, smaller government and infrastructure led by the private sector. 35-44 year old female, Queensland

I know what it used to stand for, even if its policies didn’t always reflect its values: actual liberalism – economic conservatism and social centrism. Now it is a mess of right to far-right evangelism, racism, and Thatcherism. 35-44 year old female, NSW

I used to share the old values of social progressiveness and fiscal conservatism with the Liberal party, but today it seems to stand for Racism, Homophobia, Misogyny, Divisiveness, and the interests of Pentecostal Christians, Billionaires and Fossil Fuel Corporations; all combined with an eagerness to porkbarrel and rort that verges on the corrupt. 35-44 year old male, NSW

In the past: small government, low tax, incentive and freedom. Now: religious right and conservatism. 45-54 year old female, Victoria

Hard to say these days, in the past they were good economic managers did well for the country. Now who even knows. 25-34 year old female, Victoria

It is hard to answer this – at the moment the Liberals appear to be looking after and their supporters in big business / the fossil fuel industry and themselves with no real policy agenda… 55-64 year old male, Victoria

Most of the questions on Liberal Party values were interlinked and referenced each other – eg. is their approach consistent with the values as you understand them. This question design was on the expectation there would be at least some themes emerge in what the party stood for, but as the overwhelming response was that people didn’t understand what the party stood for, the results can’t be analysed quantitatively.

So, qualitatively, this is what we have:

Scott Morrison is the worst PM ever if you’re a Labor or Greens voter. If you’re a Liberal voter, the response range from ‘he’s ok’ to ‘he started out well but…’ to expressions of being ashamed or embarrassed.

Scott Morrison is a great representative of the value of the Liberal Party is you think the party’s values are corruption/greed/destroying the country/some other partisan rant. Those who understand what the party is supposed to be about say he’s disconnected with the values of the party.

The Coalition Government’s actions have been true to their values on some things, but not most things. Of the policy areas asked about – climate change, refugees, the economy, Covid-19, status of women, health and education – there was greatest support for the party’s actions of refugees and the economy being aligned with their values. COVID-19 management had the least support.

Most important of all the insights gleaned is that the party base is collapsing from both sides. The more Libertarian freedom and personal choice type people are abandoning the party to the minor right parties; the pro-business and fiscal conservative type people are angry and want their party back, and are sizing up the independents in the meantime. Given that two-sided abandonment, and that the Libertarians aren’t looking back while the fiscal conservatives are still mulling their options, it is interesting that Morrison (and Dutton, and presumably the rest of the inner circle) have decided to pander to the right’s racism and bigotry, rather than look after their heartland and much more important donor base in the fiscal conservatives.

Or, why they aren’t just going back to stumping their values and communicating clearly what the party stands for. Demonstrably, it is desperately needed.

We received many complaints that these questions were difficult to answer and confronting. We thank you for trying to answer them best you could anyway, because understanding how and why the Liberal base is degrading is really important (and, obviously, needs more research).

It is our intention to do Labor values next month, but obviously as things are close to the election we may have to drop it for something more time sensitive. Thanks to everyone who takes part in our surveys, sign up to the panel here to take part.